6 percent, almost exactly the current rate (3

riding Trump is taking credit for the economy he inherited

buy canada goose jacket cheap economy really is right now. As always in expansions, there are strong spots and weak points. buy canada goose jacket cheap

Canada Goose Outlet Strength No. 1 is the job market, specifically the increase canada goose parka outlet uk in jobs and buy canada goose uk the commensurate decline in unemployment. That Trump inherited this trend is canada goose outlet toronto location beyond question. I extrapolated the trend in unemployment from its peak in early 2010 to the end of 2016, and then kept that same linear trend going through January 2017, when Trump took office, until now. The result is a jobless rate of 3.6 percent, almost exactly the current rate (3.8). Same for African Americans. Canada Goose Outlet

canada goose deals Source: BLS, my estimates. canada goose deals

canada goose clearance sale The canada goose outlet ottawa same exercise with average monthly job growth reveals canada goose outlet michigan a slight deceleration, from about 200,000 per month canada goose outlet parka to 190,000 since Trump took office. To be clear, that difference is both insignificant and expected: As we close in on full employment, job growth will tend to decelerate. canada goose clearance sale

canada goose store Source: BLS canada goose store

buy canada goose jacket cheap So, team Trump has every right to tout canada goose outlet shop these trends, but there’s not a shred of evidence they have contributed to them. Still, they haven’tmessed them up.. yet. buy canada goose jacket cheap

canada goose store They can legitimately take credit canada goose outlet buffalo for juicing GDP growth, which has accelerated due to the deficit financed fiscal stimulus from the tax cuts and spending. Canada Goose Outlet Economists not in employ of the administration believe this sugar high will fade by around 2020, but for now, they have done something highly unusual: aggressively stimulate an economy that was heading toward full employment on its own. canada goose store

canada goose clearance Despite this added GDP growth, there are three ways today’s economy is significantly underperforming: wage growth, productivity growth and the fiscal outlook. canada goose clearance

canada goose Given the tightness of the labor market, we should be seeing faster wage growth, and canada goose jacket outlet toronto its absence canada goose outlet uk fake is inconsistent with all that “best ever” stuff. canada goose

canada goose clearance https://www.canadagoosejacket-outlet.ca In the full employment latter 1990s, this working class real wage grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, more canada goose outlet store calgary than twice the rate it’s growing today. The job market was tighter back then: The unemployment rate was also around 4 percent but there were fewer working age folks on the sidelines. So, one explanation for Trump’s wage problem is that there is more slack in the job market than that 3.8 percent unemployment rate canada goose outlet price suggests. canada goose clearance

cheap Canada Goose Another explanation for slow real wage growth is something most economists agree is the most serious shortcoming in today’s economy: slow productivity growth. The figure below shows that the growth of output per hour worked is creeping along at its lowest growth rate in decades. cheap Canada Goose

canada goose black friday sale Source: Goldman Sachs canada goose black friday sale

canada goose clearance sale Slow output canada goose outlet sale per hour canada goose outlet kokemuksia is typically cited as a constraint on trend GDP growth (as noted, their stimulus is, for the time being, counteracting that effect). canada goose outlet new york But slow productivity growth canada goose jacket outlet uk is also a constraint on wages, canada goose uk making it harder for firms to both maintain profitability and boost worker pay. So, they are choosing profits over pay hikes, and canada goose outlet website legit given workers’ weak bargaining clout, they have been getting away canada goose outlet florida with it. canada goose clearance sale

buy canada goose jacket cheap Lastly, there’s the deteriorating fiscal outlook, which, of course, has Trump and the Republicans’ fingerprints all over it. My main fiscal concerns stem from the devious play by Republicans to cut taxes for their donor base and then whine about goose outlet canada how we just can’t afford Social Security and Medicare. But the near term economic impact of this play canada goose outlet store toronto is also worth noting. buy canada goose jacket cheap

Canada Goose online To finance the extra debt, the Treasury must significantly increase the supply of bonds, which lowers their price and raises their yields. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, worried about potential overheating, is also raising rates. Higher interest rates put upward pressure on debt service, and not canada goose outlet mississauga just for the federal government but for canada goose clothing uk the highly leveraged corporate sector. Of course, rates have been so low for so long that they have room to grow, but the transition to the higher rate regime is a risk factor. Canada Goose online

canadian goose jacket Which serves as a reminder of another big risk in the economy. Somewhere out there, no one knows where, lurks the next recession. It is here where presidents make a big economic difference, and the thought of this administration and canada goose discount uk Congress having to quickly react to an economic downturn is a very scary one. canadian goose jacket

canada goose black friday sale Depending on when the downturn hits, even with its recent rate hikes, the Fed may not have a lot of interest rate firepower. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose So, while I don’t begrudge team Trump their bragging it’s standard practice if anything, the strength of the economy underscores how little it has to do with this extremely chaotic presidency and an economic team that engages canada goose factory outlet vancouver far more in wishful thinking than cogent analysis canada goose.

Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please type the characters of this captcha image in the input box

Please type the characters of this captcha image in the input box